Expected Hourly Win
Expected
Hourly Win in Poker
One
of the main differences between playing poker in a
brick and mortar card room and playing at an online
poker room is the amount you can expect to win or lose
per session. Since poker session times vary, we’ll
look at this based on each hour of play.
Having
a realistic outlook on what you should expect to win
per hour of play at the poker table is an important
aspect of any player’s game. Knowing the numbers is
a great way to keep your feet on the ground when you
experience a run of good or bad luck.
The
accepted average win rate for a brick and mortar, live
card game is one big bet per hour. This means that at
a $10/20 Hold’em game you should be clearing $20 in
profits an hour. Doesn’t seem like much? When you
consider the speed of a live game, tipping the dealer
and the house rake, you’re actually doing pretty
well to clear a big bet or a big bet and half per
hour.
Many
people use the same formula to calculate the hourly
win rate for an online poker game. Actually, you can
expect to do better online. There are several reasons
you will usually average a higher win rate playing
online poker rather than live. First and most
importantly, you will play many more hands per hour.
So, if you are a consistent winner you will obviously
win more playing online. How much more? I’d say a
player who averages one or one and a half big bets per
hour in live poker could instantly double that by
playing online. Therefore, you can expect to win two
or 3 big bets an hour playing online poker.
There
is more to the increased profits online than just game
speed. You also need to consider that you’re never
tipping the dealer in an online poker game and more
often than not the rake will be slightly lower online
than live. Another factor to consider when playing
online is the bonus or player rewards you receive for
your play. Since the online poker room has the ability
to deal much more volume and has the obvious advantage
of having less overhead than a brick and mortar card
rooms, you can cash in on promotions and rewards that
ultimately increase your win total and should be
considered when figuring your expected hourly win.
An
example of this would be player points or rake back.
You should look at the value of points or cash back
and add that to your eventual expected win. In the
case of cash this is easy...if you earn $2.00 an hour
in rake back, that should be considered in your
expected hourly win rate. With player points you will
need to assign a value to the points you earn per
session. Can they be redeemed for cash? Or can you use
them to enter freerolls with cash prizes? Both
examples have obvious value. Exchanging your points
for cash means that each point would be worth a
certain (small) amount of money. Simply calculate how
many points you earn per hour, find the cash value and
this to your win rate. If your points can only be used
to enter freerolls, take the total prize pool of the
freeroll and divide by the number of player in the
tournament. This will give you a rough idea of the
assumed buy in and cash value.
It’s
obvious that you’re not always going to win exactly
the estimated hourly rate. The important thing to
remember is that your estimated hourly win rate is how
much you can expect to win playing poker over the long
term. This includes hours when you win $500 or lose
$300. The idea is to play consistently and have
realistic expectations. By knowing what you can expect
to win over time, you will be better able to stop when
you’ve had an exceptionally good poker session and
cut your loses when your luck is running bad. Since
you do not have expectations of winning $1,000 an hour
playing poker you are setting yourself up to succeed
in the long run. Above all else, remember that poker
is a marathon not a sprint. By calculating the average
hourly win rate for your game you will be able set
profit goals and monitor your success as a poker
player over several sessions.
